WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new emissions‑gap analysis released Tuesday finds the United States lagging behind every other G20 economy in aligning projected greenhouse‑gas outputs with the 1.5°C pathway, despite accounting for roughly 15% of global emissions.

The report, compiled by the Climate Action Tracker and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, compared national pledges against the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s carbon‑budget scenarios. It shows the U.S. would emit an estimated 5.3 gigatonnes of CO₂e between 2025 and 2030, a shortfall of 37% relative to the 1.5°C trajectory, while the EU and Japan are within 10% of their targets.

“The United States’ current Nationally Determined Contribution simply does not match the scale of the challenge,” said Dr. Elena Ramirez, senior climate economist at the Brookings Institution. “If policy does not tighten by 2024, investors will face stranded‑asset risk across energy, transportation and heavy‑industry sectors.”

For global investors, the gap translates into heightened exposure to carbon‑intensive assets that may lose value as European Union Emissions Trading System prices rise and as major corporations commit to net‑zero by 2050. Bloomberg estimates that roughly $2.4 trillion of U.S.-listed equities are tied to fossil‑fuel revenues, a figure that could shrink if the administration enacts stricter emissions standards.

G20 ministers convening in New Delhi next month are expected to discuss a unified carbon‑pricing framework, but the United States remains the only major economy without a federal cap‑and‑trade system. Analysts warn that the outlier status could undermine collective financing for climate mitigation, reducing the likelihood of meeting the $100 billion annual adaptation fund pledged by wealthier nations.

The report urges the United States to accelerate legislation that expands renewable‑energy incentives, tightens vehicle emissions limits and aligns its 2030 target with the 1.5°C pathway. Doing so would not only narrow the emissions gap but also provide clearer signals for markets, allowing investors to reallocate capital toward low