WASHINGTON, D.C. — The World Trade Organization said that the drag on global trade from the war in the Middle East was more than offset by a surge in spending on artificial‑intelligence‑related goods, lifting the forecast for world merchandise trade growth to 2.8% in 2024.

The WTO’s annual trade outlook reports that global sales of AI‑related hardware and software reached $1.2 trillion in 2023, a 12 % year‑on‑year increase, driven largely by semiconductors, data‑center equipment and industrial robotics. By contrast, commodities tied to the conflict zone, such as oil and certain minerals, fell 0.5 % in volume, narrowing the overall trade gap.

KEY POINTThe WTO’s annual trade outlook reports that global sales of AI‑related hardware and software reached $1.

“AI is becoming a catalyst for trade resilience,” said Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala, WTO Director‑General, during a press briefing on Tuesday. “The rapid deployment of intelligent systems across manufacturing and logistics has helped firms offset supply‑chain shocks and sustain demand in a volatile geopolitical environment.”

Policy responses are already shaping the market. The United States and Japan have announced streamlined licensing for high‑performance chips, while the European Union is considering stricter export controls to prevent technology proliferation. These divergent approaches create arbitrage opportunities, prompting multinational corporations to relocate production lines to jurisdictions with more favorable AI‑tech regulations.

Industry analysts note that investors are reallocating capital toward AI hardware. “Investors see AI hardware as a new growth engine,” said Michael Lee, senior analyst at GlobalEquities. “Since the WTO released its figures, shares of major chipmakers have risen an average of 8 % and venture funding for AI‑enabled robotics startups surged to $4.3 billion in the first half of 2024.”

Key Takeaways

• Global AI‑related goods sales topped $1.2 trillion in 2023, outpacing the decline in conflict‑driven commodity trade.
• World merchandise trade is projected to grow 2.8 % in 2024, the highest rate since 2017.
• Regulatory divergence on AI exports is driving strategic shifts in supply chains and investment flows.

Overall, the WTO’s assessment suggests that artificial‑intelligence spending is not only cushioning the impact of geopolitical tension but also reshaping the architecture of global trade, with implications for policymakers, businesses and investors worldwide.